WEBVTT

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So I'm gonna talk today about understanding the rates

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of contact with the criminal justice system

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for children involved with social

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welfare services in England.

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I'm based at the University of Sheffield.

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I'm a research fellow here,

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and I've been working, um, with the government, uh,

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education and justice data to understand a bit more about

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outcomes for, uh, this population.

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So, we do know from evidence that children

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and adults with care experiences are more likely

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to have contact with the criminal justice system in England.

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And we've had several reports over the years,

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particularly looking at young people who have had looked

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after care placements

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and looking at the numbers of those young people who go on

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to particularly be in prison,

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so having kind of custodial sentences.

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Um, so we do know

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that this group is really over overrepresented in the prison

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system, and we also know that for women, the proportion

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of women with care experience in the criminal justice system

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is higher than the proportion

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of men from the criminal justice system.

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So in the prison population, for example, um,

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over 60% have been reported of women have been reported

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as having historic care experiences, whereas for men,

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the rates are something more like 30%.

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So both very high,

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but there is a difference there between, um, men and women.

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So today I'm gonna talk a bit about

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where the evidence might be missing.

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Where there's a bit of a gap is for children

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who are supported, but, uh, remain living at home.

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So supported by social workers as a child in need

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or on a child protection plan,

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but that never elevates to, um,

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actually a looked after placement.

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Um, and also there is a group, uh, as I'm sure you all know,

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who are referred, and some of that group,

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they may have an assessment and then no

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further action is taken.

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Um, and also for some of them it may be

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that they don't actually have the assessment either, perhaps

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because the referral is seen as being, uh, not,

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not appropriate for an assessment by social workers.

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And this is quite a big group of, of young people.

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So in the sample that I'm looking at is about 7% of children

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who are referred,

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but they don't actually have an assessment, um,

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or the assessment doesn't lead to an intervention.

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And so I'm looking at every level

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so there's also young people who never have any contact

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with social care services, which

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of course is the majority of young people.

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Um, and then the group that are referred,

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but they don't have any involvement

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or an intervention by, um, social welfare

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and then the other levels of, of social welfare involvement,

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so child in need and child protection plan.

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So that looking at those groups is, is kind of different

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and a bit new and we don't really understand the outcomes at

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the moment, um, in research anyway of those young people.

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Uh, so, um, yeah, it's, it's kind of those children

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that I will be focusing on.

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Oh, we're back on. Um, so you can see here my sample

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that I've been looking at is, um,

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is about 1.7 million children or just short of that.

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And you can see that the majority won't have any social care

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contact with 86%.

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The referral only group is about 7% of children.

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So, uh, yeah, just over, um, as close to 120,000 children,

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4% of the population will be registered

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as a child in need at some time.

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Uh, 1% are placed on a child protection plan,

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and that's kinda the highest level of, of involvement

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or intervention that they have.

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And then 2%, uh, are, are looked after children

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and these are just recording kind of the highest ever level

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of intervention that they might have.

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So I'm using here linked government administrative data,

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which I know many of you're are familiar with,

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but I will just, um, explain it as well.

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Um, so this is administrative data, is any information

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that's created when people interact with public services.

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So we'll have this data stored about us.

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So this is every time we have interactions with schools,

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so things like attendance data, hospitals,

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so everything is recorded and, um, that's held on a system.

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The courts or benefits system, they're just examples

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of different, uh, government departments

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and each department will collate

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and hold that data themselves.

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Uh, and these, historically,

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these data sets have been kept very separate

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and just owned by each government department,

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but there was a lot to be

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learned from linking them together.

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So we've, I'm looking at,

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and so is Katie data that's been linked between education,

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uh, the education department

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and also the Ministry of Justice as well.

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Uh, so it's kind of trying to see

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what can we find out then about that linkage.

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And within the education data is the social welfare data,

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so any child protection, uh, data in there,

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but none of the case notes,

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but just the kind of the child in need, uh, return

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and the child booked after, um, return as well.

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Just to explain a bit about how I've used the data,

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don't wanna go too in detail with this,

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but I've chosen a sample of children born

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between September, 1995 and August, 1998.

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So that's three school years of children that adds up to,

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yeah, 1.67 million children in England.

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Um, the education data

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and the social welfare data starts at age

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five, that's quite important.

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So we don't have welfare data from

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before five, which is quite a large proportion of children.

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Um, but the justice so that we've got them all the way

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through their education in the education data

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and then the justice data goes to about 2020.

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So by that point, the children were young people

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between the ages of 22 and 25.

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So trying to look at the, uh, outcomes

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for young people involved with social welfare.

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Um, but it's really important

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to also look at other influences that might have, uh,

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affected their likelihood of having criminal justice

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system contact.

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Um, so that includes poverty, um, special educational needs

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and, and disability school attendance

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or if they were excluded from school, their GCSE, uh,

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outcomes and also also their ethnicity as well.

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So all of those things are considered when I've gone on

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to like, analyze the data.

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Um, and the comparison in every case is always the group

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that didn't have any social welfare involvement at all.

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And the question that we're asking is like,

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what is the likelihood

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or the odds of having at least one caution

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or conviction by age 22 to 25, um,

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at each level of social welfare involvement compared

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to the no social welfare group?

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First of all, just some like percentages just

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so you can see the, the lay of the land really.

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So this is the proportion of children at different levels

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of social, uh, welfare involvement who have contact

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with the criminal justice system.

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So for the no social care group, it's 6%

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of the population will go on

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to have at least one caution or conviction.

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And then you can see here, these are the different groups

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that we've, uh, previously kind of, um, showed.

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So the referral only group, uh, that rate is 18%.

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So 18% of them will go on to have a criminal caution

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or conviction in the child

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in need group it's 22%.

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In the child protection plan, it's 28%.

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And in the child looked after group it's 37%.

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So as you can see, it's like a stepped increase in the level

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of intervention or, or involvement.

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Uh, and it's also the rates go up in terms of the number

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that are going on to have a criminal caution or conviction.

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And then down at the bottom you can see the breakdown

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for males and females.

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And this is generally what we see is

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that males offending at a higher, you know, more

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of them are going on to offend than not.

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So even in the no social care population, the rate

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of offending is five times higher in

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men than it is in women.

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But you can also see that the rates

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can have this stepped thing again in the the

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females and males.

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Uh, but what you might be able to tell from these numbers is

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that actually the difference between the girls

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who are in the looked

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after group, for example,

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it's 14 times higher than the no social welfare group,

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whereas in the males it's um, four and a half times higher.

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So you can see

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that there is an increased risk in both groups,

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but that increased risk is looking to be

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that it's higher in in females.

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So this is the outcome from the analysis.

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So this is taking into consideration all those

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really important other things.

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So you try and take out the role of things like poverty, uh,

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and yeah, education outcomes for example, uh, just to try

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and drill down, to look at just the sort

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of social welfare level

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and what that might mean for, um, likelihood

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of having a criminal caution or conviction.

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So again, you can see here

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that each group is more likely than the no social care group

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to have a criminal caution or conviction.

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And that we still see this stepped rise in, um, likelihood

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of offending for each group.

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So you start off with the referral only group is 1.9 times

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higher, then you've got, uh, yeah, over two times higher

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for the child in need group, two

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and a half times higher for the child protection plan group,

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and over four times higher for the looked after children.

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That's for the whole population.

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And when we look at females

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and males separately, you can see that this increased risk

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that we thought we might see for girls is there.

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So you can see that the increased likelihood of offending,

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uh, for females is higher at each level than it

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is for males.

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And it goes up to kind of close to six times higher

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for the looked after girls, where it's three

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and a half times higher for the looked after boys.

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So I've also done a separate analysis, which is, um,

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looking not just at the rates of England,

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and it's good that we've got people on the call from all

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over, uh, the country

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because I'm looking to see

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what the differences are across England

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between local authorities in the outcomes for young people

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who are involved with social

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welfare at these different levels.

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And so, um,

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this is a separate analysis is a little bit different,

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but it does still account for the local authority,

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poverty rate and also also the youth offending rate in the

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general population within that area.

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So that's the non welfare, um, population of young people to

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to, 'cause obviously that also varies across the country.

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So even if you take into account those two things

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we are seeing across between local authorities,

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quite high variation in the outcomes for young people.

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So for example, uh, for the looked

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after child population in some, in the lowest level of

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that group who are going on to have criminal cautions

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or convictions

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or who also have criminal cautions of convictions,

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I should say, uh, is 20% of the population.

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But in some local authorities it goes up to 62%.

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Um, so it's, we are looking at, at each level up

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to three times greater risk in some local authorities than

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in other local authorities.

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So in the referral only group, it ranges from 14% to 22%.

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In the child. In knee group it's from 8% to 29%.

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And for the child protection group it's from 14% to 43%.

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So it's really quite a big variation.

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And um, I think

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that when we look at just the national statistics, I think

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that's actually, uh, it is still really helpful

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but I think some of this, um,

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variation is really helpful to see.

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Uh, and when I do come to publish these, um, findings,

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it'll be that you'll be able

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to see like your local authority, how it's performing

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within the national picture, uh,

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which hopefully will be something that will be useful

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uh, for practitioners especially.

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This is more research from, uh, this,

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This is kind of explanations from the research.

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There isn't a huge amount, uh, of research, uh,

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in this area, but there is some really good stuff, uh,

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there, um, which I'll hope to summarise a bit of here.

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Um, so in terms of looking at kind of outcomes for girls,

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uh, there is some evidence that shows that um,

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girls are more likely to offend if they've been exposed

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to some types of, um, maltreatment,

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um, particularly things like exposure to domestic violence.

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So rates of, uh, girls who are exposed

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to these kind of things.

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And I think neglect comes up quite highly for girls

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as well compared to maybe other forms of, um, reasons

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for which that you might be involved with girls, uh,

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you know, around abuse, um, those rates are higher in terms

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of offending later.

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There's also other pathways to offending for girls so

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that you can see, um, for example, girls

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that perform worse in education who are involved

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with social welfare, they might be more likely to offend.

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Um, and also alcohol misuse is a big factor as well.

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For looked after children,

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This, we see the greatest risk in this group.

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There's often cited like structural factors,

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so things like calling the police

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to manage behaviour in care homes.

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Um, then there's also increased vulnerability

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to exploitation in those settings.

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Uh, and also there's evidence to show

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that girls in these settings may be particularly vulnerable,

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uh, to exploitation as well.

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But for the groups that are being supported at home,

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things like the family being less able to supervise

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and monitor, I think I saw a comment like that on the board.

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Uh, and also greater opportunity for criminal activity

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and exploitation in the community that they're sort of,

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you know, that they're familiar with. Uh,

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children on the mar... margins of care.

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I'm not quite sure that's the right term,

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but the ones who are referred

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but they haven't, uh, actually, you know, aren't, um,

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don't meet the criteria

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or don't need an intervention from social workers.

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This is, this is more of a comment really,

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it's just a very large group of young people.

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There's 21,000 young people who have, uh, been referred

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and they go on to, uh,

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have a criminal caution or conviction

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and that's 16% of that whole population of young people

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who are having contact with the criminal justice system.

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And this is really is just a comment just to say like,

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actually this group we know very, very little about.

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They're only really identifiable in the admin data, um,

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that are, that, you know, we have been using.

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Um, and this group may or may not be monitored

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or supported over time,

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but certainly we might expect there's a quite a big

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variation in this across, uh, local authorities in England,

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um, 'cause there's no reason for it to be standardised.

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Uh, yeah, and as you've all, many

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of you have mentioned in the Jamboard, um, we see here, uh,

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obviously if you're exposed to lots

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of adversity in childhood,

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this has a big impact on child development, particularly

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around emotional dysregulation, um,

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difficulty inhibiting behaviours, so lots of impulsivity,

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difficulties with relationships

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and attachment, which I think has just popped up in the,

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um, chat as well.

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Um, and also things around low self-esteem.

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So that, and um, and also attachment difficulties.

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You know, this really increases vulnerability

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to exploitation and,

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and like the, um, comment says, you know, parti,

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perhaps this is particularly for girls as well, you know,

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forming unhelpful, unhealthy relationships.

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Uh, but just to say thanks to my colleagues, Nathan Callum,

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Katie and Matt at the University of Sheffield

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and Birmingham, and also this work is supported by a DR UK

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who are the ones that have been linking up these government

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data sets, like with the, working

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with the government departments.

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Um, yeah, so thank you to everybody.

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That's the end, uh, of my contributions.
